Trailhead Thoughts
“The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present.”
- Paul Saffo
Trail Map - Learn. Think. Act. ™
Forecast Like a Pro.
We all forecast. Whether it’s sales, staffing, or planning for a vacation. Unfortunately, many of us approach it the wrong way.
📚Learn
Forecasting isn’t guessing, it’s planning. A good forecast is built on a process.
Break things into stages (e.g. validated → fit confirmed → proposal approved → closed won.)
Define each stage clearly, use past-tense, and have clear exit criteria.
Assign a realistic probability to each stage based on your data. NOT SOMEONE ELSES
Know your other variables. Time, Money, Specific Pipeline. You have them, it’s important to identify them, and eliminate the unnecessary.
Without this structure, you’re just hoping. And as we’ve said before, hope is not a strategy!
🤔Think
What are you forecasting today - sales, hires, project timelines?
Now ask:
Are the stages clear and consistent across your team? What are the steps or gates we need to go through to get to the end?
Can you demonstrate why and when something moves from one stage to the next?
Are you using real data to assign probabilities?
💪 Act
Write down the stages of your current sales or hiring process.
Define the “exit criteria” for each stage in past tense (e.g. “proposal was approved.”)
Update your forecast with stage-based probabilities and key dates.
If you want clearer decisions and fewer surprises, start forecasting like a pro.
*** Let’s go beyond the trailhead for a deeper dive. Subscribe and keep reading - for subscribers only 👇👇👇 ***
Beyond the Trailhead
Forecasting Without the Crystal Ball
Most forecasting problems aren’t math problems. They’re clarity problems.
When forecasts miss, it’s usually because everyone was using different definitions, different assumptions, or different “gut feelings.” That’s how you end up planning for growth while quietly bracing for chaos.
The fix is not more spreadsheets. It’s fewer guesses.
Better forecasting starts when teams agree on three simple things:
What stage a deal is in?
What has already happened to earn that stage?
What is the probability of success based on what we have achieved so far?
When those definitions are clear and shared, forecasts stop being hope-based and start becoming usable.
Actions You Can Take This Week:
Audit your stages. Ask your team, “What has to be true for something to be in this stage?” If answers vary, that’s your signal.
Use past tense. “Client confirmed fit” beats “looks promising” every time.
Forecast in ranges, not promises. You’re planning for the future, not predicting with 100% certainty.
Apply the same thinking outside sales. Hiring, renewals, capacity planning. Forecasting is a leadership skill, not just a revenue one.
BONUS for Subscribers - These are the stages that Mike typically implements in organizations he works with. This is the Catalyst Sale Process, and the example below includes definitions and exit criteria.
New Customer Acquisition and Expansion
Renewal Pipeline
If you’re reading this thinking, “Yep, our team needs this,” do them a favor and forward it along. Forecasting gets better when everyone’s looking at the same map.
If you want help tightening this up - definitions, stages, probabilities, the whole system, that’s what Mike works through in focused whiteboard sessions and coaching. Clarity you can run with.
The goal isn’t a perfect forecast.
It’s fewer surprises and better decisions when the surprises do show up.
Voices from the Trail
Meet Mike – founder of Find My Catalyst
This is a unique “Voices” from the trail. It’s the sizzle real that we released this week. The compilation includes a pre-conference workshop, the opening keynote, and in the hallway conversations.
Thank you in advance for sharing it with someone who is looking for a speaker for their next event.
We tailor the experience to help your participants Learn.Think.Act.™
Hitting the Trail
We’re actively exploring speaking opportunities for Mike at conferences, leadership off-sites, SKOs, RKOs , and team events. If you know of an open call for speakers or if you are looking for a speaker that brings a clear, practical voice on leadership, decision-making, and execution, we’d love the referral or the opportunity to talk with you .
See how Mike works with teams.
Announcements
Decide Like a Leader - Free Live Webinar
If you’ve recently stepped into a leadership role and find yourself overthinking, second-guessing, or feeling the weight of every decision you make, this webinar is for you.
Join us on Tuesday, January 27th at 9:30am Pacific / 12:30pm Eastern for a practical session designed to help high performers turned leaders move from hesitation to clear and confident decision-making.
That’s it for this week.
If you have a topic you would like for us to cover in the Find My Catalyst newsletter, email us at [email protected]. Be sure to use “newsletter topic” as your subject line.
Keep putting one intentional step in front of the other - the view gets better and better as you climb.
The Find My Catalyst Team