“The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present.”

- Paul Saffo

We all forecast. Whether it’s sales, staffing, or planning for a vacation. Unfortunately, many of us approach it the wrong way.

Forecasting isn’t guessing, it’s planning. A good forecast is built on a process.

Break things into stages (e.g. validated → fit confirmed → proposal approved → closed won.)
Define each stage clearly, use past-tense, and have clear exit criteria.
Assign a realistic probability to each stage based on your data. NOT SOMEONE ELSES
Know your other variables. Time, Money, Specific Pipeline. You have them, it’s important to identify them, and eliminate the unnecessary.

Without this structure, you’re just hoping. And as we’ve said before, hope is not a strategy!

What are you forecasting today - sales, hires, project timelines?

Now ask:

Are the stages clear and consistent across your team? What are the steps or gates we need to go through to get to the end?
Can you demonstrate why and when something moves from one stage to the next?
Are you using real data to assign probabilities?

Write down the stages of your current sales or hiring process.
Define the “exit criteria” for each stage in past tense (e.g. “proposal was approved.”)
Update your forecast with stage-based probabilities and key dates.

If you want clearer decisions and fewer surprises, start forecasting like a pro.

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